How Golden’s Gators Can Stay Undefeated at Kentucky
Florida star guard Walter Clayton Jr. against North Carolina in a 90-84 victory, Dec. 17, Charlotte, NC. Matt Kelley (Getty Images)
Florida basketball is fantastic.
Head coach Todd Golden has led his Gators to an undefeated non-conference record (13-0) for the first time since 2005-2006, a national championship season. Florida hasn’t just beaten its competition, they’ve destroyed them. The Gators have won every game but one by 13 or more.
This stat doesn’t do the team justice as they annihilated Wichita State by 37, Virginia by 18, Wake Forest by 17, and Arizona State by 17.
The only exception was a 90-84 thriller against North Carolina in Charlotte. It was virtually a home game for the Tar Heels, and UNC went up 81-77 with 4:02 left.
In the final four minutes, the Gators outscored North Carolina by 10. It was the first time this season that Florida faced adversity, and they responded down the stretch of a game that was guaranteed to boost the winning team’s NCAA Tournament resume.
Golden’s team has been an offensive juggernaut for the last two years. They were ranked 12th in offensive efficiency last year and sit 9th this year via KenPom.
Where the team struggled badly in 2023 was on defense, something that shone through in Florida’s first-round loss to Colorado in the NCAA Tournament last year. The Gators surrendered 102 points to the Buffaloes in that game.
Florida finished last season ranked 94th in defensive efficiency by KenPom. That number has jumped an astounding 78 spots as Florida sits at #16 in that metric in 2024. This kind of jump is almost unheard of, and it’s a credit to Golden and his staff’s ability to add impactful defensive players in the transfer portal.
The rock of Florida’s improved defense is senior guard Alijah Martin, an FAU transfer who was integral to the Owl’s Final Four run two years ago. Martin has been an absolute terror defensively for Florida, hounding the best offensive player for every team the Gators have faced. He has given the team an edge they lacked last season as Florida constantly struggled to get consistent stops. Now, it’s normal for the Gators to go on massive scoring runs without any opposition, a quality that many championship-winning teams have.
Martin’s contributions aren’t the only reason Florida is elite defensively. Florida has three senior guards who all rank in the top 25 in the SEC in steals among guards. Will Richard is 6th on that list while Martin is 8th.
Walter Clayton Jr. has been the star offensive player for the last two seasons (17.2 points per game this year), but his improvement on defense has made Florida one of the most dangerous teams in the country. Not known in his career as a defender, he is tied for 25th in steals among SEC guards.
Kentucky relies heavily on its offense. Six players average double-digit points, the only team in the SEC to achieve this. First-year head coach Mark Pope is known for his creative offensive sets that spread the ball around. This year, it’s worked to perfection, ranking 10th in KenPom offensive efficiency.
How Kentucky scores is strikingly similar to Florida. Florida relies on its three senior guards to take on the bulk of the offensive load. The Wildcats one-up the Gators, with its top four scorers all being upperclassman guards. Florida leans on experienced players to make the right plays and get high-quality shots. Kentucky is the same; it is moving the ball constantly.
The Wildcat attack is led by junior guard Otega Oweh, who’s averaging 15.9 points a game, and senior Lamont Butler, the former San Diego State Aztec who sent Martin’s FAU team home on a famous buzzer-beater two years ago.
Butler hasn’t lost his offensive burst, averaging 13.3 points a game to go along with 4.1 assists in what’s been a tough schedule. Two weeks ago, he had an astounding game against Louisville where he went 10-10 from the field and 6-6 from three for 33 total points.
Kentucky’s defense doesn’t match Florida’s. The Gators are 42 spots higher in KenPom defensive efficiency; the Wildcats are 58th. In one of its most recent games against an average team, Ohio State, Kentucky was smashed 85-65. They were poor defensively, letting Ohio State get whatever they wanted at the rim.
If the Wildcats don’t hit threes, they struggle. Their reliance on the three-pointer showed in the Ohio State game, as they hit only 18% of them and got blown out as a result.
Florida’s main emphasis on defense will be stopping Kentucky’s three-point attack, something the Gators have thrived at this season. Florida is second nationally in three-point makes allowed this year, with opponents making only 26.6% of their attempts this season. Golden has to be encouraged by this, as it was a weakness for his team last year.
Florida and Kentucky have extremely similar offenses. They both average about 88 points a game, shoot the three consistently, and rely on their upperclassmen to initiate the offense.
Florida has the edge with its improved defense, which has been elite at limiting Kentucky’s strength: making threes. I believe this will be the difference in the game, as Florida’s defensive strength matches up well with Kentucky’s offensive strength.
At Rupp Arena, nothing is easy. There will be 21,000 raucous fans ready to snap the Gators’ undefeated streak, and that will undoubtedly play a part in this game. However, Florida has many of the same guys that went to Kentucky last year and won on the road. Clayton Jr’s three to send the game to overtime last season will loom large in the minds of Kentucky fans.
PREDICTION:
Florida 85
Kentucky 78
I think Florida will move to 14-0 and set up a massive top-5 matchup with Tennessee this upcoming Tuesday.
—
Walker Perryman
