Can Billy Napier Get Another Signature Win Against Lane Kiffin and Ole Miss?
Florida running back Jadan Baugh celebrates during his team's 48-20 rout of Kentucky, Oct. 19, Gainesville, FL. Gary Mccullough (AP)
It feels good to be a Gator this week. We finally have something to latch onto as a fanbase as Florida took down LSU this past Saturday, 27-16, in a game where it felt like The Swamp was back. The win has been a huge shot in the arm for Gators fans, recruiting efforts, and the program’s morale in general.
Leaving the stadium, it was a similar environment to some of our best home wins in the last decade. I don’t think the stadium has been that loud since La’Mical Perine’s run against Auburn in 2019.
Recruiting has taken a major upturn since the win. On Sunday, 4-star quarterback Tramell Jones and 3-star defensive lineman Stephon Shivers both committed to Florida. Jones recently decommitted from FSU while Shivers left Georgia’s class two weeks ago. The Gators kept it up and on Tuesday, 3-star offensive lineman Daniel Pierre Louis joined Jones, flipping from FSU to Florida.
The early signing period is December 4-6. This means high school football players can sign with colleges in only a few weeks. UF’s recruiting class is currently ranked 27th in the nation according to the 247 Sports Composite rankings. That number needs to improve in the next few weeks.
Luckily there’s a clear path for Florida to get better. This past weekend, there were many premier visitors including 5-star FSU offensive lineman commit Soloman Thomas, five-star Oregon wide receiver commit Dallas Wilson, and five-star Texas wide receiver commit Jamie Ffrench. The Gators would obviously like to land all three prospects but getting two of them would secure a solid class.
Getting into this week’s game, the stakes are high for Ole Miss. The Rebels come into The Swamp ranked #9 in the College Football Playoff rankings and are firmly in the playoff picture. If they beat Florida and Mississippi State to end the year, Ole Miss will be in the 12-team playoff.
The storylines of this game write themselves. Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin has been the hottest name to replace Billy Napier at UF. Kiffin has a checkered history full of controversy, but one thing remains consistent – he is an unbelievable offensive coach.
For now, Napier’s job is secure with the public endorsement from the athletic association and his first win against LSU since he arrived in Gainesville. However, a blowout loss to the coach many Gators fans still want to replace Napier will turn the heat back up.
Luckily for the Gators head coach, he has DJ Lagway. After last week, it’s hard to describe what it’s like to watch the freshman in person. When he’s the quarterback, it seems like every unit on the team plays better and with more effort. He’s a leader and that’s been demonstrated from his third game as a true freshman against Texas A&M when he was seen firing up the team before the game. This guy wasn’t even the starting quarterback and as a 19-year-old was lifting the team in ways that we haven’t seen a Gators quarterback do since Tim Tebow.
The key to beating Ole Miss is taking advantage of Lagway’s gifts. Lagway is the best deep passer in college football and it isn’t close. On deep passes (20+ yards), he has a 99.4 passing grade which is 3.5 points higher than any other quarterback in the nation. He’s now completed 24 passes of 20 yards or more this season as a part-time starter.
Ole Miss has one of the best defenses in college football but struggled to contain explosive plays in losses to LSU and Kentucky. Hitting big plays is something Lagway has done effectively and efficiently this season, but he’ll need to be even more explosive to beat the SEC’s best defense.
Giving up explosives is the only weakness that Ole Miss has on defense. They rank in the middle of the SEC in explosive plays given up. However, the pass rush is elite. The Rebels have a 23.5% sack rate. This means Ole Miss gets a sack about every four dropbacks. That’s absolutely ridiculous. Nationally, they are #1 in havoc rate and sacks, #17 in success rate, and top 20 in both run stuff rate and pass defense. It is the best defense Florida has faced this season.
One of the best players on that defense is a former Gator — defensive lineman Princely Umanmielen. Umanmielen played three years at UF before using his last year of eligibility to transfer to Ole Miss this season. He has been dominant with 9.5 sacks and 12 tackles for loss. One of the game’s big storylines will be the return of Umanmielen to Gainesville.
On offense, it's also a tough matchup. Ole Miss thrives because of Kiffin's creative playcalling paired with the talent of quarterback Jaxson Dart, who has been one of the SEC’s best players this season. Dart is the only SEC quarterback to average over 300 yards a game in SEC play and he’s thrown 22 touchdowns to just four interceptions on the season.
Returning from injury this weekend for Ole Miss is wide receiver Tre Harris. Harris is 1st in the SEC and 5th in the FBS in receiving yards (987 yards) even after missing the last three games. That should tell you how good he’s been this season. Harris isn’t the only weapon for Dart as sophomore wide receiver Cayden Lee is 6th in the SEC in receiving yards (696 yards).
For Florida to win this game, they’ll need to repeat the blueprint from last week's win over LSU. I don’t think the Gators can replicate its seven-sack performance but getting three to five sacks would be a recipe for success against Dart who is at his worst under pressure.
Ole Miss’ defense has been historically dominant. They are the first team since 1997 to have over 100 tackles for loss at this point in the season. Florida doesn’t have a strong enough offensive line to keep Lagway’s pocket clean all game. The path to success on offense is hitting big plays when the chances open up, and there’s nobody in college football that can do that like Lagway. However, Ole Miss team is the best that the Gators have faced this year. They are extremely well-rounded on both sides of the ball with playmakers everywhere.
PREDICTION:
Florida - 23
Ole Miss - 34
I would love for Florida to win this game, but I can’t see them moving the ball on Ole Miss. With that being said, Lagway has never lost a game as a Gator that he’s started and finished. Hopefully, he makes it 4-0 on Saturday.
– Walker Perryman
