Why Florida Will Break its Five-game Losing Streak Against LSU
Florida Gators quarterback DJ Lagway #2 during pre-game as the Gators prepare to host the Miami Hurricanes at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Gainesville, Florida. August 31st, 2024. Gator Country Photo by David Bowie.
The last three weeks have been tough as a Gator fan. We’ve had two losses in football, our young star quarterback DJ Lagway was carted off against Georgia, and our head basketball coach Todd Golden is involved in Title IX accusations of sexual harassment and stalking. Despite the challenges and negativity, I believe there’s still hope within Florida athletics. That hope starts this week by beating LSU in front of by far the most recruits the Gators have had at a game this year.
Let’s briefly talk about that before getting into the specifics of the game. Since Florida announced the return of Billy Napier as the coach in 2025, high school recruiting has taken a major upturn. The visitor’s list for this weekend’s game is filled with five-star prospects such as LSU cornerback commit DJ Pickett, Texas wide receiver commit Jamie Ffrench, Ohio State cornerback commit Na’eem Offord, and Oregon wide receiver commit Dallas Wilson.
With Lagway likely returning to action, showing Florida can compete with LSU in front of major recruits is a key factor in the program's success this weekend. Napier needs to get back the faith of the fanbase. One of the first steps is to flip the currently 43rd-ranked recruiting class. Winning is always the goal, but showing off an amazing environment to top recruits is just as important.
The next step is beating LSU and almost certainly securing a bowl game in a season where that’s been far from guaranteed. This game is always ridiculously wacky.
Some may recall when now-retired Les Miles was coaching LSU. Miles was notorious for trick plays and killed Florida with the timing of those plays.
Others might remember the 2016 Hurricane Matthew game where The Swamp couldn’t be used because of storm damage. LSU refused to play at a neutral site and instead, with the Gators' SEC title hopes on the line, Florida traveled to Baton Rouge. The goalline stop by UF that secured a trip to Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game is still a very special moment.
Then there’s the 2020 shoe game. With the game tied with under five minutes, Florida was about to get the ball back after getting a third-down stop. A win would have likely resulted in the Gators making its first College Football Playoff and earning the school’s fourth Heisman Trophy with beloved senior QB Kyle Trask. Instead, cornerback Marco Wilson threw an LSU player’s shoe after the play, giving LSU a first down for unsportsmanlike conduct and the Tigers went on to win the game.
Since that cursed day, UF is 21-26 in football.
If history tells us anything, this year’s game will be close. Seven of the last ten matchups between the teams have been decided by one score or less.
LSU’s success as a team is reliant on its passing offense. Junior QB Garrett Nussmeier has thrown for nearly 3,000 yards already this season and is paired with one of college football’s best receivers, Kyren Lacy. Lacy loves the big stage with many of his best games this year coming against ranked teams. LSU comes into the game ranked seventh in the nation in passing offense. With Florida missing both of its starting cornerbacks to injury, whoever is matched up with Lacy will have their hands full.
The passing offense of LSU has only one limitation – the decision-making of Nussmeier. Nussmeier has been extremely careless this season, throwing five interceptions in his last two games and 11 on the season. Strangely, almost all of these picks came without pressure. As I wrote in my preview of Georgia, Florida can take advantage of careless QBs. They had two interceptions against Kentucky QB Brock Vandergriff and three against Georgia QB Carson Beck. For the Gators to win, they’ll have to continue this trend.
LSU’s running attack is much less effective and something the Gators should have success against. Nationally, LSU ranks 103rd in rushing offense and 65th in yards per rush. Florida isn’t a dominating rush defense but did extremely well against UCF and Tennessee – two top-ten rushing offenses.
Losing sophomore linebacker Grayson Howard to injury for this game will have an impact on Florida’s ability to stop the run. Howard has been an elite run-stopper and sophomore Jaden Robinson will have to step into the position. If Florida can repeat the good tendencies it showed against UCF and Tennessee, they’ll have a great chance to emerge victorious.
On defense, LSU has improved from last season, but that’s mostly translated to unranked teams. Against ranked opponents, LSU gave up 33 to South Carolina, 26 to Ole Miss, 38 to Texas A&M, and 42 to Alabama last week. The biggest weakness of the LSU defense is stopping the run. They rank 74th in the nation in rushing defense, and that hit a low point last week when Alabama QB Jalen Milroe ran for 185 yards and four touchdowns at LSU.
Even when healthy, Lagway isn’t Milroe. The soft tissue hamstring injury that saw Lagway carted off the field against Georgia will have a major impact on his mobility in the game. However, the reason Florida’s had success in the run game with Lagway isn’t his legs. It’s his arm that can throw over deep defenders which causes teams to drop players back, leaving more room for the Gators to run the ball.
If Lagway plays, expect the Gators to run all over the Tigers in The Swamp.
LSU’s passing defense is 64th in college football, a major improvement for a team that ranked 118th last year. This has been the product of new Defensive Coordinator Blake Baker who joined LSU last offseason from Missouri. Baker has been able to clean up last season’s issues in the passing game, but that hasn’t translated to the run game where LSU is still abysmal against good competition.
For Florida to win the game, it comes down to a few keys. The Gators have to run the ball effectively, force Nussmeier into turnovers, and stop the LSU run game. Napier’s defense won’t be able to stop LSU from passing the ball, nobody this season has. They need to stop the run so that the team can limit the damage in the passing game on important downs. On offense, establishing the run game is the path for Florida to win. If LSU respects the run, it gives Lagway chances to hit deep passes against a very average LSU secondary.
PREDICTION
Florida - 34
LSU - 31
I think we win this one. LSU has won five straight against the Gators and we’re due.
– Walker Perryman
