Can the Gators Beat trevor etienne’s dawgs?
Former Florida running back Trevor Etienne who transferred to Georgia at the end of the 2023 season / ATHENS, GA / Dale Zanine - USA TODAY SPORTS
What a relaxing weekend of college football! Fans say they hate bye weeks, but I can’t relate. Every weekend I don’t have to watch Billy Napier’s Gators adds at least a year to my life. After this weekend, Florida has officially lost to the #5, #7, and #10 teams in the AP Poll. It doesn't get easier as they face #2 this week and #6 next week.
Texas A&M showed me the most out of every team this weekend. Head Coach Mike Elko’s team proved how dangerous it can be with quarterback Marcel Reed at the helm, destroying LSU’s run defense in the second half. I wish they’d played Connor Weigman (who was injured at the time) against us in The Swamp, but I doubt they bench Reed again after that performance.
With that being said, it’s the last week of October, and that means it’s time for Georgia. This matchup on paper is more intriguing this year than in Napier’s last two seasons, but Vegas disagrees. Florida opened as a 22-point underdog (now +16.5) on Saturday after being a 13.5-point underdog last year and a 23-point underdog the year before.
To keep it real, that opening line was shocking for me to see. Florida has improved on both sides of the ball with its defense taking major steps forward in the last three games. The unit is solid enough to hold Georgia down as Kentucky did earlier this year (held UGA to 13 points). In my opinion, the line means that Vegas believes that Georgia dominates Florida’s star true freshman quarterback, DJ Lagway, but I think there’s more to it.
To provide a reference point, Kentucky was a 21.5-point home underdog to UGA earlier this season and Auburn was a 20-point underdog in Athens. I can reasonably say that Florida would be favored against Auburn on a neutral field and they beat Kentucky by four touchdowns a week and a half ago. The fact that Florida is getting a similar number as Auburn on a neutral field is extremely suspect. To me, the line is an indictment of Kirby Smart and his staff’s ability to gameplan off a bye week.
Smart’s defensive game planning off of the bye week has been phenomenal every time the Gators have faced the Dawgs, (except for the 2020 wheel route game; long live Kyle Trask), and he will have his team frothing at the mouth to curb-stomp us into irrelevance this season.
Like I said before, on paper, the matchup is more intriguing. Florida’s defense has stepped up in the last three games, holding UCF, Tennessee, and Kentucky to 13, 23, and 20 respectively. There have been rumors that the defensive play-callers have changed from Ron Roberts to Austin Armstrong after giving up 480 yards to Mississippi State.
I can’t confirm that, all I can say is that he is back on the sideline, giving signals to star linebacker Shemar James, and the scheme looks identical to what we ran last season with Armstrong at the helm.
Roberts uses a bend don’t break scheme where Florida wouldn’t stack the box on obvious run situations to prevent explosive plays over the top. This happened against A&M in multiple short-yardage situations where the Aggies converted easily because Florida wouldn’t put 7-8 defenders in the box. Armstrong plays aggressively, putting extra defenders in the box on obvious run-downs and taking risks that can allow for explosive plays (such as blitzing a safety that leaves the team vulnerable downfield).
I’d argue a lot of the defensive issues last year were due to the player’s inability to execute the scheme. In the past three games, the scheme has been executed and it’s yielded results. Whether or not it’s Armstrong, Roberts, or a combination calling the plays, it doesn’t matter. The bottom line is that Florida is calling effective plays on defense and the new talent on the team is responding.
Georgia has some weaknesses on offense. QB Carson Beck was projected as a top-10 draft pick coming into the year but has regressed badly in 2024. In 14 games last year, Beck threw only six picks. In half of those games this season, he’s thrown EIGHT picks. EIGHT! For a guy that some touted as the future number-one draft pick, he has lost himself with five interceptions in the last two games and a combined 55.05% completion rate against the only ranked SEC teams he’s faced (Bama and Texas). In those two games, he threw three in EACH GAME.
Florida has five picks in its last three games. With the three against Kentucky, the team matched its INT total for the entirety of last season. Yes, you read that right. Florida had THREE interceptions ALL YEAR in 2023. If they can continue this trend, the Gators could steal a few scores to help them stay in the game. The issue is that turnovers are forced by consistent pressure on the quarterback.
Darth Vader (Trevor Etienne) is the main running back for Georgia after transferring from the Gators last winter. Etienne is a great player and that hasn’t changed. He’s averaging over five yards a carry and has seven touchdowns.
Although Florida’s pass rush has improved over the last three weeks with nine sacks, it doesn’t match up to Georgia’s offensive line which is 8th in the nation in sacks allowed. It’s always difficult to disrupt Georgia in the trenches and last week’s demolition of Texas showed that in their current form, the Dawgs will be almost impossible for the Gators to beat on the line of scrimmage.
On offense, freshman phenom DJ Lagway has given Florida something it hasn’t had in the Napier era: downfield passing. He’s hitting 69% of his passes that are 25 yards or more down the field totaling more than 500 yards. No QB in the nation has matched Lagway’s efficiency on deep passes this season although he has a smaller sample size than others. I mentioned it in my last piece, but against Kentucky, he became the first Florida QB ever to have five 40+ yard passes in a game. The dude is special and gives Florida a wrinkle on offense that opens up the run game that Napier reveres.
On defense, Georgia’s holes are much smaller. Smart’s unit is 19th in total defense and 13th in 3rd down conversion rate. They continue to dominate year after year under Smart and don’t have many weaknesses this season. Because of DJ Lagway’s ability to hit deep passes, Georgia will run a ton of zone, specifically Cover 4. All that means is that Georgia will have players deep and aren’t going to let Lagway hit the shots he did against Kentucky.
The Gators will hope to take advantage of this by consistently hitting routes over the middle of the field and running the ball consistently. Can they do this? I would argue no as Lagway’s weakness on film is hitting those short to intermediate throws. However, if the bye week can prove to be a time when Florida adapts its offense and Lagway starts hitting those passes, Florida will be in the game.
It’s prediction time, and this is an interesting one. I don’t believe in the ability of a Billy Napier offense to move the ball on a Kirby Smart defense and the Georgia offense always seems to find its way in the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party. If Florida can take advantage of Carson Becks’s erratic tendencies, run the ball well, and hit intermediate routes, they’ll have a chance to win. I think Georgia will make enough plays to win and shut down DJ Lagway outside of 2-3 passes.
PREDICTION:
Georgia - 27
Florida - 13
I hope everyone has fun and stays safe this weekend. I’ll be in Jacksonville so let’s hope getting barked at stays at a minimum. Go Gators!
— Walker Perryman
