What does Billy Napier need to do to keep his job in 2025?
Florida Head Coach Billy Napier after a 23-17 loss to Tennessee - KNOXVILLE, TN
Florida Head Coach Billy Napier is the worst UF football coach in the modern era. You might think that’s just an angry college kid talking, but it’s just a fact. Since 1960, no head coach in UF history has had a worse win percentage (46.88%) than Napier, and I speak for all fans when I say it has felt that bad in the last few years.
Florida’s biggest struggle in this regime has been its inability to play complimentary football. It feels like whenever the offense would show up in year one, the defense would fold, miss tackles, and blow assignments. Napier’s playcalling has been scrutinized, but most forget that it was the defense in year one that held back an offense that was 35th in the nation in total offense and 26th in rushing offense. In year two, it was a similar story, but the offense took a step back ranking 47th in total offense, 38th in passing offense, and 83rd in rushing offense.
The game against Tennessee two weeks ago was a great example of the team’s inability to complement each other. The much-maligned defense went to Knoxville and showed incredible heart while the offense, despite out gaining Tennessee by over 75 yards in regulation, went 3/6 on red zone scoring opportunities while Tennessee went 3/3.
Obviously, the elephant in the room is Florida’s performance against Kentucky. Freshman star quarterback DJ Lagway shined in a 48-20 win where Napier was able to use Lagway’s strengths at certain points of the game. Lagway had seven completions for 259 yards, averaging 37 yards per completion, and became the first Florida QB in the last 20 years to have five or more 40+ yard completions in a game. It’s worth noting that the Wildcats came into the game ranked 3rd in college football in limiting explosive plays (the Lagway effect is real).
The Gators sit at 4-3 and still have four top-20 teams left on the schedule. For me, Napier would have to finish 7-5 and avoid any blowouts to keep his job. This means beating FSU, and two of Texas, Georgia, LSU, and Ole Miss.
Injured senior QB Graham Mertz, for all his great qualities, was never able to hit downfield passes. If Napier can continue to call good vertical passing routes that stretch the defense, Florida could achieve the 7-5 mark behind a defense that has been revolutionized since the team’s loss to Texas A&M.
The record is only the first step. Napier would also have to keep Lagway, flip this recruiting class, and stack elite players in the transfer portal. According to the 247Sports Composite, Florida currently has the 50th-ranked recruiting class in the nation. This is because every high schooler in America believes that Napier won’t make it to next season. No Florida recruiting class in my lifetime has been this bad in October. This time last season, nearly the entire class was already committed before a 5-7 season killed the hopes of a top-five ranking (finished 13th).
At this stage, I have no idea how Napier plans to recruit high schoolers to come here next season. I worked on the field in football recruiting last season for all but one home game. Every single recruiting seat was filled for every single game I worked. This season, from the stands I can see entire sections that are empty. The disaster that is Florida football recruiting showed its true colors in the first game of the season where Miami players yelled at our recruits to “Come to the U” after blowing out Napier’s Gators 41-17 in The Swamp.
I see no path to restoring this recruiting class, but even if Napier turns it around, he’d also need to bring in 4-5 elite transfer portal talents to stay here. Napier (despite wide receivers Elijah Badger and Chimere Dike being successful in this cycle) has never accomplished this but needs to this year.
Finally, Napier would have to fire himself as the playcaller and hire a passing-oriented offensive coordinator. Despite the success of the offense under Lagway last week, Napier’s offense doesn’t complement its best players’ strengths. This is a huge red flag for me. For example, instead of calling a play with one vertical route that Lagway has to hit for the play to be successful, I want someone who calls four downfield routes and gives Lagway more options. Napier doesn't implement these strategies and I don’t expect him to change his ways. It’s the reason he has to give up playcalling.
It was unbelievable watching Florida throw the ball down the field on Saturday. Florida fans live for downfield passing, it’s the basis of the championship teams that have defined our program over time. If Napier wants to survive, he needs to use the bye week to add downfield passing concepts to the offense and lean on Lagway’s strengths. There’s one thing I love about bye weeks: the Gators won’t lose. With that being said, enjoy the bye week folks, and Go Gators!
— Walker Perryman
