How the Gators Can End the Vols Undefeated Season
Florida center Ruben Chinyelu snatches a rebound against Kentucky in a 106-100 loss, Jan. 4, Lexington, KY. Michael Hickey (Getty Images)
Florida should’ve beaten Kentucky in its last game.
The Gators’ two best guards — Alijah Martin and Walter Clayton Jr. — missed eight free throws together, and Kentucky shot 48% from three. Florida came into the game with the 2nd ranked three-point defense in the county and was one of the SEC’s most efficient defensive teams.
Although Kentucky posed an offensive challenge that the Gators hadn’t faced this season, the defensive performance was abysmal and a significant outlier from what the team has shown this year.
Florida’s defense has to be better than what it showed against the Wildcats. The players know it, and head coach Todd Golden knows it.
“We did two things really poorly. We didn’t guard the three. We gave up 42 points behind the line and we gave up 44 in the paint. You can’t come in here and expect to win guarding that way,” Golden said after his team’s loss in the SEC opener.
Golden is right. Kentucky deserves credit for running creative offensive sets and making threes at a ridiculous clip. They are one of the best offensive teams in college basketball, and Florida ran into a buzzsaw in guard Koby Brea, who went 7-9 from three.
But Florida has consistently played phenomenal three-point defense (albeit against weaker competition), and its performance last game was unacceptable.
The Vols enter this game as the number-one team in the AP Poll and head coach Rick Barnes has engineered the school’s first 14-0 start since 1923.
Tennessee is one of the most connected teams in college basketball. They play together on both ends, rarely missing defensive switches and constantly moving the ball on offense.
In a typical year for a Barnes Tennessee team, they would be a top defense but sometimes struggle offensively. This year, he’s hit all the right notes, assembling a roster that ranks first in the nation in KenPom defensive efficiency and 20th in offensive efficiency.
The offense is led by senior guard Chaz Lanier, one of the best players in college basketball. Lanier is averaging an absurd 20.3 points a game (#1 in the SEC), and his partner in crime, senior guard Zakai Zeigler, is averaging eight assists a game (#1 in the SEC).
This guard tandem is why Tennesee is so successful. They are not just offensive juggernauts; both players are good defensively. Zeigler is seventh in the SEC in steals per game, and Lanier is in the top 30.
Zeigler is the ultimate glue guy for the Vols. He is the best passer in the conference, hits big shots, and plays lockdown defense on every opposing team’s best guard. Florida has to stop him from getting into the paint and dishing it out to shooters.
Despite the Vols’s defensive prowess, Florida’s offense matches up well with Tennessee. After dropping 100 points at Kentucky, Florida is ranked third in the county in KenPom offensive efficiency.
It will be strength against strength as nobody has stopped Florida’s offense this season, and no team has gashed Tennessee’s defense.
Tennessee has the best three-point defense in the nation. Their goal will be to shut down Florida’s shooters and force drives into the paint, where 6’11 junior forward Felix Okpara will be waiting to block shots (1.3 blocks per game).
The positive for the Gators is that they have been elite at home on both ends of the floor, especially on defense. The last three opponents that have come to Gainesville have averaged 53 points a game.
Florida’s defensive focus has risen with the home crowd behind them, and I expect that to continue with added motivation to beat the nation’s number-one team.
Tennessee has struggled when its two elite guards aren’t making shots. The only game that Tennessee almost lost was at Illinois (66-64 buzzer-beater win).
The Vols scored only 66 points as Lanier and Zeigler shot a combined 6-22 from the field. This is encouraging for the Gators as the atmosphere in Gainesville will be even more raucous for a huge top-ten rivalry matchup.
SEC teams are 132-3 at home this season. Kentucky’s homecourt advantage was significant last weekend; now it’s Florida’s turn to show Tennessee what a house of horrors the O’Dome can be.
A final factor that gives me confidence going into the game is the betting market. The phrase “Vegas always knows” rings true in many cases (including in Florida’s loss to Kentucky, where the Wildcats closed at -3.5), and this game is no different.
Tennessee opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but as of the night before the game, Florida is a 2.5-point favorite via FanDuel. This massive four-point line movement indicates that the Gators will win tomorrow, as the money line has also moved from -108 to -145 in 10 hours. Vegas isn’t in the business of losing money, and these trends bode well for Florida.
PREDICTION:
Florida 78
Tennessee 75
The Gators take this one behind the sold-out O’Dome and end Tennesee’s undefeated season.
—
Walker Perryman
