Why Florida Should Be the Favorite in the 2025 NCAA Tournament
Florida head coach Todd Golden cutting down the net after winning the 2025 SEC Tournament, March. 16, Nashville, TN. Andy Lyons (Getty Images)
Florida basketball is back. They aren’t just back to being relevant or ranked, the Gators are a dominant force capable of humiliating the best teams in college basketball.
Head coach Todd Golden has brought a new level of competition, development, and winning to a program that has been nationally irrelevant for the last decade.
For the first time in program history, Florida finished the regular season with the nation’s most efficient offense and won five games against current AP top-10 opponents (#4 Auburn, #7 Alabama twice, and #6 Tennessee twice).
In these wins, the Gators’ average margin of victory was 15 points.
They also won the 2025 SEC Tournament for the first time since 2014, Billy Donovan’s last Final Four season with Florida. The road wasn’t easy as the Gators took down #23 Missouri, #7 Alabama, and #6 Tennessee on their way to cutting down the nets in Nashville.
Walter Clayton Jr. was the player of the tournament, averaging 20.7 points and 4.7 assists while shooting 50% from three-point land. Days later, he became the first player in program history to be named a First-Team All-American and did so unanimously. His two seasons have been a revelation and he’ll go down as a Gators basketball legend.
Florida should be the favorite coming into this year’s NCAA Tournament because they are the hottest team in college hoops. Since March began, Florida has been the most efficient team in the country, going 6-0 and smashing five ranked teams.
In a year where 14 SEC teams made the NCAA Tournament, Florida won the conference tournament easily, never trailing in the 2nd half of any of their games.
It’s simple; the Gator boys are hot.
Florida’s guards have been exceptional this month. Walter Clayton Jr. is averaging 19.5 points, Will Richard is averaging 15.5 points, and Alijah Martin is averaging 13.3 points. Florida’s frontcourt has also outrebounded every team they’ve faced.
The Gators can handle anyone, and Evan Miya’s Opponent Strength Adjustment rankings back this up. The metric measures a team’s efficiency against the nation’s top teams, and Florida leads the list.
The win-or-go-home format of the NCAA Tournament bodes well for the Gators since they’ve been at their best in the biggest games.
Only three teams have entered the NCAA Tournament with a +36.00 net rating on KenPom since 2000, and all three made the Final Four. Florida finished the year at +36.17, its best net rating since the database was invented.
There are no holes in this team. Florida has the best offense, a top-10 defense, a top-8 rebounding rate, and a roster that has ten players that can legitimately contribute in the NCAA Tournament.
Florida’s starting lineup is one of the highest-rated in college basketball, but the true danger that the Gators pose is their depth.
For reference, Thomas Haugh is the 6th most valuable player in all of college hoops according to Evan Miya, and he comes off the bench for this Gators team.
Denzel Aberdeen is another bench player who continues to play at a high level when called upon, hitting Florida’s biggest shot of the SEC Tournament at the end of the first half against Tennessee to stretch the Gators’ halftime lead from six to nine. He also averaged 17.3 points per game as a starter when Alijah Martin was injured in February.
What makes it even more fun to root for this team is that every member of the roster has been undervalued. Florida is the first one-seed ever without a top-100 high school recruit.
For a 30-win team that’s been this dominant, this statistic is unfathomable. It shows the massive chip on every player’s shoulder to get to Florida and make a name for themselves.
There’s a reason Florida is the 2nd betting favorite to win the tournament behind Duke. They’ve proved to be unflappable in March with only one game (a 9-point SEC Tournament championship win over Tennessee) being decided by single digits.
Golden’s group is primed to win six games in a row. They are elite against the best, battle-tested in the strongest conference, and ready to bring home the program’s third national championship.
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Walker Perryman
